The 2012 Don't Kill The Mellinger Royals Over-Under Challenge results
The Kansas City Star
You do remember that the Royals played a season, right? They were disappointing and they were injured and they didn’t score much.
It was the season where Eric Hosmer sucked, Alcides Escobar wow’ed, Alex Gordon earned his money, Billy Butler was Billy Butler, Sal Perez set off fancrushes all over the region, and the promising Jonathan Sanchez turned into the disgusting Jonathan Sanchez turned into the promising Jeremy Guthrie.
It was the season that leads into the most critical offseason of Dayton Moore’s time in Kansas City, and, I’d argue, the most critical offseason of David Glass’ as well.
But before we get into all of that — we have roughly four months until pitchers and catchers report — it’s time for the results of the 2012 Don’t Kill The Mellinger Royals Over-Under Challenge.
We did it a little differently this year, capping the participants at 100, and I can’t thank Drew Porter enough for volunteering to do all the math with this. Literally, this would not have happened without Drew, so I hope my gratitude and a gift card for some food are enough thanks.
This year’s winner of bragging rights, a guest post here, and his own gift card for some food is … Lee Leslie.
Lee was the only contestant with 12 right answers, so — I believe for the first time in the dubious history of this contest — we didn’t go to the tiebreaker. The three misses: Hosmer’s homers, Sanchez’s walks, and Dufffy’s ERA.
Here’s the rest of the top five, and keep in mind that the tiebreaker was Royals attendance, which turned out to be 1,739,759.
Matthew Fowler- 11 right, 4 wrong. Tiebreaker guess 1,899,999 (160,240 people off)
Alex Fehr- 11 right, 4 wrong. Tiebreaker guess 1,900,002 (160,243 people off)
Chris McAffe- 11 right, 4 wrong. Tiebreaker guess 1,901,360 (161,601 people off)
Josh Steinmetz- 11 right, 4 wrong. Tiebreaker guess 1,912,263 (172,504 people off.
More info from Drew:
Eleven people got ten right, five wrong.
Eight people got nine right, six wrong.
Sixteen people got eight right, seven wrong.
Which means 60 of the 100 got more wrong than right, which means more than half of you might’ve had better luck flipping a quarter. Three people got three right and 12 wrong^.
^ That’s me making a joke at your expense, not Drew. Drew’s a good guy. I’m, well, I’m working on it.
- Wins: 77.5
80% picked over
20% picked under
Answer: Under (The Royals finished the 2012 season 72-92.)
- Games Within first place: 15
15% picked over
85% picked under
Answer: Over (The Royals ended up 16 games out of first place, and placed 3rd in the division.)
- Royals Selected All Stars: 1.5
69% picked over
31% picked under
Answer: Under (1, Billy Butler was the lone contest at the All-Star game in Kansas City. Butler received a huge standing ovation before the game. He pinch-hit for David Ortiz and went 0-2, lining out to 3rd and striking out.)
- Yuni Betancourt Starts: 99.5
22% picked over
78% picked under
Answer: Under (Yuni Betancourt started 51 game before being designated for assignment on August 5, 2012.)
- Ned Yost Ejections: 2.5
63% picked over
37% picked under
Answer: Over (Ned Yost was ejected 3 times during the 2012 season)
- Eric Hosmer Home Runs: 24
75% picked over
25% picked under
Answer: Under (Eric Hosmer hit 14 home runs during the 2012 season, hitting only 5 homers after the All-Star Break.)
- Alex Gordon OPS: .835
49% picked over
51% picked under
Answer- Under (Despite only having a .777 OPS during the All-Star Break, Alex Gordon heated up in the later months of the season and ended the season with an OPS of .822. )
- Jeff Francoeur OBP: 319
57% picked over
43% picked under
Answer- Under (Jeff Francoeur ended the 2012 season with an OBP of .287.)
- Billy Butler Extra Base Hits: 63
80% picked over
20% picked under
Answer- Under (Billy Butler was only 1 short of the estimated total, having 62 extra-base hits including 32 doubles, 1 triple, and 29 home runs. Butler was only 7 home runs shy of tying Steve Balboni’s single season home run record set in 1985.)
- Mike Moustakas Batting Average: .275
32% picked over
68% picked under
Answer- Under (After having a batting average of .268 going into the All-Star Break, his average dropped to .242 at the end of the 2012 season.)
- Mike Montgomery Starts: 12.5
17% picked over
83% said under
Answer- Under (The most disappointing pitching prospect this season for the Royals was Montgomery, as he failed to make a start in the big leagues after spending his second season in AAA, including a demotion to AA on July 11,2012. The lefty was 3-6 in AAA Omaha with a 5.69 ERA, and was 2-6 in AA NW Arkansas boasting a 6.67 ERA.)
- Luke Hochevar Wins: 10.5
79% picked over
21% picked under
Answer- Under (Luke Hochevar had 6 wins going into the All-Star Break, but only won 2 games after. The former #1 overall picked finished the season 8-16 with a 5.73 ERA.)
- Jonathan Sanchez Walks: 85
60% picked over
40% picked under
Answer- Under (Jonathan Sanchez walked 44 batters in a Royals uniform before being traded to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Jeremy Guthrie on July 20, 2012)
- Danny Duffy ERA: 4.85
14% picked over
86% picked under
Answer- Under (Danny Duffy finished the season with a .390 ERA after making only 6 starts in the 2012 season. Duffy was 2-2 with 28 strikeouts in those 6 games before receiving Tommy Johns Surgery.)
- Team Saves: 33
93% picked over
7% picked under
Answer- Over (The Kansas City Royals bullpen finished the 2012 season with 44 strikeouts. Jonathan Broxton had 23 saves in a Royals uniform before being traded to the Cincinnati Reds on July 31,2012. Greg Holland took over the closer role after Broxton’s leave and recorded 16 saves on the year. Rookie Kelvin Herrera also saved 3 games this season and Topeka-native Aaron Crow ended the season with 2 saves.)
Thanks again, everybody. Hope you had fun, and congratulations to Lee and THANK YOU to Drew.